Crises in the Contemporary Persian Gulf by Barry Rubin

Author:Barry Rubin [Rubin, Barry]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781138990470
Google: 8KwWvgAACAAJ
Barnesnoble:
Goodreads: 42993714
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2001-11-30T00:00:00+00:00

7

The Gulf States and the American Umbrella

JON B. ALTERMAN

US policy in the Persian Gulf, which has changed so many times over the years, is again in the midst of debate and revision. The US strategy in the 1960s and 1970s was to side with Iran, partly to contain Iraq; in the 1980s to side with Iraq to contain Iran; and in the 1990s to try to contain both countries simultaneously in order to preserve Gulf stability and protect the Arab monarchies there.

Part of the difficulty in developing a policy for the early twenty-first century lies in the fact that past policies have helped keep the peace. Iraq has not threatened its neighbors since massing troops on the Kuwaiti border in 1994, and Iran is actively courting other Gulf powers, especially Saudi Arabia. As regional threats appear to be waning, the United States remains in a defensive crouch that may hamper its ability to take advantage of opportunities for a new regional security environment. A US view of the Gulf that so heavily concentrates on military threats may also miss the importance of internal political changes, which over the next decade may have a far greater impact on matters of interest to the United States than the military balance will.

For decades, US policy in the Middle East has been driven by three main principles: energy security; Israeli security; and a general desire for stability and the protection of friendly regimes. Over the last 20 years, developments in the Gulf have directly affected each of those principles.

The Iranian revolution of 1979 was a jolt to American strategy in the region. In a short few months at the beginning of that year, the United States lost an important ally, its designated policeman in the Gulf, and one of the two pillars of its Gulf strategy – the other being Saudi Arabia. As the new government of the Islamic Republic of Iran consolidated its power, it became increasingly vocal about its anti-Americanism, its anti-Zionism, and its desire to foster Islamic revolution throughout the Middle East. Words were followed by deeds. Iranian students, with the support of the government, overran the US embassy in Tehran in November 1979 and held US diplomats hostage for 444 days. There was also a series of internal purges, first of anyone loyal to the Shah, and then of those insufficiently committed to the goals of the Islamic revolution.

Saddam Hussein saw the Iranian revolution as a threat and an opportunity. He was the avowedly secular leader of a neighboring country, the majority of whose citizens shared the Shiite Muslim faith of Iran rather than the Sunni Islam of most Iraqi leaders. Saddam feared that a spillover of Shiite revolutionary fervor from Iran would not only threaten his grip on power but could also affect Iraq’s character as a Sunni-led secular state. He elected to go on the offensive, taking advantage of perceived disarray in Tehran to redress old territorial claims and perhaps topple the ayatollahs from power. Striking out across

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